Relateve Risks (was Sharks ..fear of them is mostly B.S.) [Chris]

Chris brought up the wonderful (off-)topic of relative risks, which is a favorite of mine. I love to ask people the theoretical question: would you let me put you in a steel box, and swing another multi-ton steel box at them at 120 mph. I promise that it will clear you by at least three feet, and probably six feet. Would you let me do it? Most of them look funny at me. Then I point out that this is what they let strangers do all the time as they drive on a local two-lane road. (Average traffic speed is about 60 mph, so the closing speed is 120 mph.) They have managed to ignore that risk almost completely. In a past life, when I wrote Q&A for the computer magazines, people often inquired about the risks of "electromagnetic radiation" from computer monitors, and some were extremely worried about it. I would point out that I am not aware of any credible evidence that the low-frequency emissions pose any health risk, yet people are quite willing to discount or ignore the known health risks of obesity, sedentary lifestyle, and poor diet. That Twinkie on your desk is far more likely to do you in than your monitor. Human risk perception is funny; we tend to recognize the very likely (don't jump off high buildings) and the very unlikely (worrying about commercial airplane crashes), but ignore the bulk in the middle. I suspect that the degree of perceived control over the situation may play an important role in how we view risks. Alfred Poor 1969 Cal 29 #132, "Pentaquod"

Alfred Poor wrote: > > > > > Human risk perception is funny; we tend to recognize the very likely > (don't jump off high buildings) and the very unlikely (worrying about > commercial airplane crashes), but ignore the bulk in the middle. I > suspect that the degree of perceived control over the situation may > play an important role in how we view risks. > > > And it's interesting that so many people are unnerved by the heeling of sailboats. They've learned, I suppose, that boats tip over and sink. But how many sailboats do people learn about that tip over and sink? Answer: damned few. They just can't get the "tip over and sink" paradigm out of their heads, I guess. And in the relatively sheltered waters where I do most of my sailing, even if the vessel were to tip over and sink, you'd get wet and maybe cold, not dead. I've often pondered the extreme vulnerability we all share when on the highway. You're right about the speeds and the proximity and the faith we have that the other driver will be competent (well trained, experienced, sober, awake, not distracted). Most of us don't give it a moment's thought It is important to distinguish between concerns about public policy (we should limit pollution because it raises the risk of disease for our population in general, for example) and obsessive fixations on things of small personal consequence (I must avoid all pollution because it may kill me). Somebody circulated some images on the internet last week. One was a newspaper photo of a pregnant woman smoking. The caption explained that she was concerned that jackhammer noise from a nearby construction site might harm her fetus. Apparently she hadn't noticed that she was smoking. Chris Campbell

--- In Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com, Chris Campbell <clcampbell@...> wrote: > > Alfred Poor wrote: > > > > > > > > > > Human risk perception is funny; we tend to recognize the very likely > > (don't jump off high buildings) and the very unlikely (worrying about > > commercial airplane crashes), but ignore the bulk in the middle. I > > suspect that the degree of perceived control over the situation may > > play an important role in how we view risks. > > > > > And it's interesting that so many people are unnerved by the heeling of > sailboats. They've learned, I suppose, that boats tip over and sink. > But how many sailboats do people learn about that tip over and sink? There are many sailboats sailing around San Francisco Bay under water that tipped over and sank. A few are as big as solings. On the other hand, there are a few floating around the north Pacific upside down that dropped their keels and haven't sunk. It's all relative. Mike Kennedy Conquest Cal 40 # 96

The story of "Drum" and the welded aluminum keel. I am waiting for one of those canting keels to twist right off. Wouldn't have to worry about flotsam. It would leave a gaping hole in the bottom of the boat. Cheers (I guess) Charlie From: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com [mailto:Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of mtkennedy1 Sent: Monday, September 17, 2007 12:23 PM To: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com Subject: [Cal_Boats] Re: Relateve Risks (was Sharks ..fear of them is mostly B.S.) [Chris] --- In Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com, Chris Campbell <clcampbell@...> wrote: > > Alfred Poor wrote: > > > > > > > > > > Human risk perception is funny; we tend to recognize the very likely > > (don't jump off high buildings) and the very unlikely (worrying > > about commercial airplane crashes), but ignore the bulk in the > > middle. I suspect that the degree of perceived control over the > > situation may play an important role in how we view risks. > > > > > And it's interesting that so many people are unnerved by the heeling > of sailboats. They've learned, I suppose, that boats tip over and sink. > But how many sailboats do people learn about that tip over and sink? There are many sailboats sailing around San Francisco Bay under water that tipped over and sank. A few are as big as solings. On the other hand, there are a few floating around the north Pacific upside down that dropped their keels and haven't sunk. It's all relative. Mike Kennedy Conquest Cal 40 # 96 Yahoo! Groups Links