Olympia, Wa

I am looking to move to the Olympia, Wa area and am wondering about the sailing conditions, marinas that sort of thing. I have a 74 Cal29. I am also interested in what the weather is like, the people, the housing, you know a gerneal feel for the area. I don't know anyone there but my sister and her family. They just moved to Roy a couple of months ago. This may not be an appropriate discussion on this forum so you can email me directly if you like. sc… [at] sbcglobal.net Thanks in advance Scott C.

Scott, All the folks I met in the Pacific Northwest that I met during my epic 1973 land yacht cruise up the California coast, Oregon, Washington rte. 1, to Victoria BC,and back down I-5 (aboard my venerable 1962 Ford Econoline van) were exceptionally nice. However I can't return to Victoria, BC, as I skipped out on a parking ticket...hahahaha.. After 36 years I hate to think what the fine has grown to be, they'll probably give me life in prison and a million dollars. I'm told there are many islands to visit, and I've heard the cruising is beyond spectacular. Hopes that helps. Oh yes, do watch out for whale spouts! Jerry --- On Sat, 10/24/09, hatikvah29 <sc… [at] sbcglobal.net> wrote: From: hatikvah29 <sc… [at] sbcglobal.net> Subject: [Cal_Boats] Olympia, Wa To: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com Date: Saturday, October 24, 2009, 11:32 AM I am looking to move to the Olympia, Wa area and am wondering about the sailing conditions, marinas that sort of thing. I have a 74 Cal29. I am also interested in what the weather is like, the people, the housing, you know a gerneal feel for the area. I don't know anyone there but my sister and her family. They just moved to Roy a couple of months ago. This may not be an appropriate discussion on this forum so you can email me directly if you like. scottcyphers@ sbcglobal. net Thanks in advance Scott C.

I sail out of Tacoma on my 76 Cal 29. We cruised the South Sound this year and spent two days in Olympia. The city is within several hours of a multitude of delightful coves, bights, and bays for anchoring out or tying up for a night. While much of the shoreline is privately owned, there are several state parks and marinas to visit nearby. You can cruise from Olympia to Alaska staying mostly within coastal waters except for a couple of short stretches north of Vancouver I. I really like the city of Olympia itself. The downtown area has a very nice feel, as if you had been dropped back into the 1950¹s; good restaurants, an excellent brewpub (Fish Tale Ales) and a farmers market. The weather is what it is in the northwest. It does rain a lot here, but our total rainfall is not that great. We just have a lot of grey, drizzly days November through February. We race in the winter here, and it is rare to end up with the type of rainstorm that makes you feel really uncomfortable. On the other hand, our weather can take some getting used to for a transplant. Our summers are outstanding. There are others on the list who live in Olympia who can tell you much more. Terry Spencer Capriccio Cal 2-29 Tacoma From: "hatikvah29" <sc… [at] sbcglobal.net> Reply-To: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com Date: Sat, 24 Oct 2009 18:32:07 -0000 To: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com Subject: [Cal_Boats] Olympia, Wa I am looking to move to the Olympia, Wa area and am wondering about the sailing conditions, marinas that sort of thing. I have a 74 Cal29. I am also interested in what the weather is like, the people, the housing, you know a gerneal feel for the area. I don't know anyone there but my sister and her family. They just moved to Roy a couple of months ago. This may not be an appropriate discussion on this forum so you can email me directly if you like. sc… [at] sbcglobal.net <mailto:scottcyphers%40sbcglobal.net> Thanks in advance Scott C.

Thanks for the replies so far. Sounds like good news for my move. I was also wondering about wind patterns. In Oregon where I am now the winds, at least in the summer months, are predictable around 2pm from the Southish till about sunset. Not sure about winter. I think it is kind of all over the place. I have been watching wunderground.com for weather in Olympia. Where ever the weather station is there doesn't seem to very much wind ever. Is that generally the case? Thanks, Scott C. _____ From: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com [mailto:Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Terrence Spencer Sent: Saturday, October 24, 2009 6:23 PM To: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [Cal_Boats] Olympia, Wa I sail out of Tacoma on my 76 Cal 29. We cruised the South Sound this year and spent two days in Olympia. The city is within several hours of a multitude of delightful coves, bights, and bays for anchoring out or tying up for a night. While much of the shoreline is privately owned, there are several state parks and marinas to visit nearby. You can cruise from Olympia to Alaska staying mostly within coastal waters except for a couple of short stretches north of Vancouver I. I really like the city of Olympia itself. The downtown area has a very nice feel, as if you had been dropped back into the 1950's; good restaurants, an excellent brewpub (Fish Tale Ales) and a farmers market. The weather is what it is in the northwest. It does rain a lot here, but our total rainfall is not that great. We just have a lot of grey, drizzly days November through February. We race in the winter here, and it is rare to end up with the type of rainstorm that makes you feel really uncomfortable. On the other hand, our weather can take some getting used to for a transplant. Our summers are outstanding. There are others on the list who live in Olympia who can tell you much more. Terry Spencer Capriccio Cal 2-29 Tacoma _____ From: "hatikvah29" <sc… [at] sbcglobal.net> Reply-To: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com Date: Sat, 24 Oct 2009 18:32:07 -0000 To: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com Subject: [Cal_Boats] Olympia, Wa I am looking to move to the Olympia, Wa area and am wondering about the sailing conditions, marinas that sort of thing. I have a 74 Cal29. I am also interested in what the weather is like, the people, the housing, you know a general feel for the area. I don't know anyone there but my sister and her family. They just moved to Roy a couple of months ago. This may not be an appropriate discussion on this forum so you can email me directly if you like. sc… [at] sbcglobal.net <mailto:scottcyphers%40sbcglobal.net> <mailto:scottcyphers%40sbcglobal.net> Thanks in advance Scott C.

Wind speed is generally less in Elliot Bay and the Lake area than you are used to in Oregon. Lite air sailing can be quite pleasant when you develop your skill. I don't have experience in Olympia. My Best, Mike From: Scott Cyphers <sc… [at] sbcglobal.net> To: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com Sent: Sat, October 24, 2009 9:10:38 PM Subject: RE: [Cal_Boats] Olympia, Wa Thanks for the replies so far. Sounds like good news for my move. I was also wondering about wind patterns. In Oregon where I am now the winds, at least in the summer months, are predictable around 2pm from the Southish till about sunset. Not sure about winter. I think it is kind of all over the place. I have been watching wunderground.com for weather in Olympia . Where ever the weather station is there doesn’t seem to very much wind ever. Is that generally the case? Thanks, Scott C. From:Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com [mailto:Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Terrence Spencer Sent: Saturday, October 24, 2009 6:23 PM To: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [Cal_Boats] Olympia , Wa I sail out of Tacoma on my 76 Cal 29. We cruised the South Sound this year and spent two days in Olympia . The city is within several hours of a multitude of delightful coves, bights, and bays for anchoring out or tying up for a night. While much of the shoreline is privately owned, there are several state parks and marinas to visit nearby. You can cruise from Olympia to Alaska staying mostly within coastal waters except for a couple of short stretches north of Vancouver I. I really like the city of Olympia itself. The downtown area has a very nice feel, as if you had been dropped back into the 1950’s; good restaurants, an excellent brewpub (Fish Tale Ales) and a farmers market. The weather is what it is in the northwest. It does rain a lot here, but our total rainfall is not that great. We just have a lot of grey, drizzly days November through February. We race in the winter here, and it is rare to end up with the type of rainstorm that makes you feel really uncomfortable. On the other hand, our weather can take some getting used to for a transplant. Our summers are outstanding. There are others on the list who live in Olympia who can tell you much more. Terry Spencer Capriccio Cal 2-29 Tacoma From: "hatikvah29" <scottcyphers@ sbcglobal. net> Reply-To: Cal_Boats@yahoogrou ps.com Date: Sat, 24 Oct 2009 18:32:07 -0000 To: Cal_Boats@yahoogrou ps.com Subject: [Cal_Boats] Olympia , Wa I am looking to move to the Olympia , Wa area and am wondering about the sailing conditions, marinas that sort of thing. I have a 74 Cal29. I am also interested in what the weather is like, the people, the housing, you know a general feel for the area. I don't know anyone there but my sister and her family. They just moved to Roy a couple of months ago. This may not be an appropriate discussion on this forum so you can email me directly if you like. scottcyphers@ sbcglobal. net <mailto:scottcyphers %40sbcglobal. net> Thanks in advance Scott C.

If you would like to watch wind patterns, you might try sailflow.com. They have current readings as well as predictions for the puget sound region. I find it fun to compare their predictions to reality. They seem to be pretty good at calling the overall regional direction but velocity in Puget Sound, particularly in light conditions, is dependent on local geography and patterns. Terry Capriccio Cal 2-29 Tacoma From: "Scott Cyphers" <sc… [at] sbcglobal.net> Reply-To: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com Date: Sat, 24 Oct 2009 21:10:38 -0700 To: <Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com> Subject: RE: [Cal_Boats] Olympia, Wa Thanks for the replies so far. Sounds like good news for my move. I was also wondering about wind patterns. In Oregon where I am now the winds, at least in the summer months, are predictable around 2pm from the Southish till about sunset. Not sure about winter. I think it is kind of all over the place. I have been watching wunderground.com for weather in Olympia. Where ever the weather station is there doesn¹t seem to very much wind ever. Is that generally the case? Thanks, Scott C. From: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com [mailto:Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Terrence Spencer Sent: Saturday, October 24, 2009 6:23 PM To: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [Cal_Boats] Olympia, Wa I sail out of Tacoma on my 76 Cal 29. We cruised the South Sound this year and spent two days in Olympia. The city is within several hours of a multitude of delightful coves, bights, and bays for anchoring out or tying up for a night. While much of the shoreline is privately owned, there are several state parks and marinas to visit nearby. You can cruise from Olympia to Alaska staying mostly within coastal waters except for a couple of short stretches north of Vancouver I. I really like the city of Olympia itself. The downtown area has a very nice feel, as if you had been dropped back into the 1950¹s; good restaurants, an excellent brewpub (Fish Tale Ales) and a farmers market. The weather is what it is in the northwest. It does rain a lot here, but our total rainfall is not that great. We just have a lot of grey, drizzly days November through February. We race in the winter here, and it is rare to end up with the type of rainstorm that makes you feel really uncomfortable. On the other hand, our weather can take some getting used to for a transplant. Our summers are outstanding. There are others on the list who live in Olympia who can tell you much more. Terry Spencer Capriccio Cal 2-29 Tacoma From: "hatikvah29" <sc… [at] sbcglobal.net> Reply-To: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com Date: Sat, 24 Oct 2009 18:32:07 -0000 To: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com Subject: [Cal_Boats] Olympia, Wa I am looking to move to the Olympia, Wa area and am wondering about the sailing conditions, marinas that sort of thing. I have a 74 Cal29. I am also interested in what the weather is like, the people, the housing, you know a general feel for the area. I don't know anyone there but my sister and her family. They just moved to Roy a couple of months ago. This may not be an appropriate discussion on this forum so you can email me directly if you like. sc… [at] sbcglobal.net <mailto:scottcyphers%40sbcglobal.net> Thanks in advance Scott C.

I use sailflow in SF Bay and find them almost always wrong, which is significantly better than the local official NOAA forecast. One problem locally is that the closest silflow monitor is shielded by a hill depending on the wind direction so a slight change in wind direction will cause a huge change in wind speed reading. That may be different in your location thought. Personally, I like the SFO data as they have a platform out in the middle of the bay that is not influenced by the hills. If that is the case up there, you might get some use out of my iGoogle gadget http://www.google.com/ig/directory?url=L-36.com/wind.xml <http://www.google.com/ig/directory?url=L-36.com/wind.xml>and enter OLM as the airport code. You can also set up a preset for the area on the weather site and see the wind readings for OLM for the last 24 hours http://l-36.com/weather4.php This site also gives tidal and current information which might be of use as currents up there can be very significant. Allen Disclaimer. I make abut 10 cents a day off of these sites so this is a bold face plug. Some day I will get to the $100 threshold and actually get a check mailed. Hasn't happened yet. If truth be told, I only have adds so that Google will have to search and index the damn site. I don't do this for the money. AE On Sun, Oct 25, 2009 at 2:42 PM, Terrence Spencer <ts… [at] harbornet.com>wrote: > > > If you would like to watch wind patterns, you might try sailflow.com. > They have current readings as well as predictions for the puget sound > region. I find it fun to compare their predictions to reality. They seem > to be pretty good at calling the overall regional direction but velocity in > Puget Sound, particularly in light conditions, is dependent on local > geography and patterns. > > Terry > > Capriccio > Cal 2-29 > Tacoma > > ------------------------------ > *From: *"Scott Cyphers" <sc… [at] sbcglobal.net> > > *Reply-To: *Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com > *Date: *Sat, 24 Oct 2009 21:10:38 -0700 > > *To: *<Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com> > *Subject: *RE: [Cal_Boats] Olympia, Wa > > > > > > Thanks for the replies so far. Sounds like good news for my move. I was > also wondering about wind patterns. In Oregon where I am now the winds, at > least in the summer months, are predictable around 2pm from the Southish > till about sunset. Not sure about winter. I think it is kind of all over the > place. I have been watching wunderground.com for weather in Olympia. Where > ever the weather station is there doesn’t seem to very much wind ever. Is > that generally the case? > > > Thanks, Scott C. > > ------------------------------ > > *From:* Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com [mailto:Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com]<Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com]> > *On Behalf Of *Terrence Spencer > *Sent:* Saturday, October 24, 2009 6:23 PM > *To:* Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com > *Subject:* Re: [Cal_Boats] Olympia, Wa > > > > I sail out of Tacoma on my 76 Cal 29. We cruised the South Sound this year > and spent two days in Olympia. The city is within several hours of a > multitude of delightful coves, bights, and bays for anchoring out or tying > up for a night. While much of the shoreline is privately owned, there are > several state parks and marinas to visit nearby. You can cruise from > Olympia to Alaska staying mostly within coastal waters except for a couple > of short stretches north of Vancouver I. > > I really like the city of Olympia itself. The downtown area has a very > nice feel, as if you had been dropped back into the 1950’s; good > restaurants, an excellent brewpub (Fish Tale Ales) and a farmers market. > > The weather is what it is in the northwest. It does rain a lot here, but > our total rainfall is not that great. We just have a lot of grey, drizzly > days November through February. We race in the winter here, and it is rare > to end up with the type of rainstorm that makes you feel really > uncomfortable. On the other hand, our weather can take some getting used to > for a transplant. Our summers are outstanding. > > There are others on the list who live in Olympia who can tell you much > more. > > Terry Spencer > Capriccio > Cal 2-29 > Tacoma > > ------------------------------ > > *From: *"hatikvah29" <sc… [at] sbcglobal.net> > *Reply-To: *Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com > *Date: *Sat, 24 Oct 2009 18:32:07 -0000 > *To: *Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com > *Subject: *[Cal_Boats] Olympia, Wa > > > > > > I am looking to move to the Olympia, Wa area and am wondering about the > sailing conditions, marinas that sort of thing. I have a 74 Cal29. I am also > interested in what the weather is like, the people, the housing, you know a > general feel for the area. I don't know anyone there but my sister and her > family. They just moved to Roy a couple of months ago. This may not be an > appropriate discussion on this forum so you can email me directly if you > like. sc… [at] sbcglobal.net <mailto:scottcyphers%40sbcglobal.net><scottcyphers%40sbcglobal.net> > > Thanks in advance > Scott C. > > > > > > > > > >

Allen. I agree that Sailflow, while being impressive in its presentations, is completely hallucinatory as to its wind prognostications, it almost cost me finishing the MdR to Catalina race when it predicted 20-25 knot breezes which were more like 11-16 knots the whole way, and I got caught very underpowered with a #3 foresail up. However, the NOAA predictions which are generally, more often on the high side, are much closer to the money. If I had to bet money (or chose a headsail) I'd go with the NOAA predictions Jerry --- On Sun, 10/25/09, Allen Edwards <al… [at] PaloAltoPhoto.com> wrote: From: Allen Edwards <al… [at] PaloAltoPhoto.com> Subject: Re: [Cal_Boats] Olympia, Wa To: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com Date: Sunday, October 25, 2009, 3:20 PM I use sailflow in SF Bay and find them almost always wrong, which is significantly better than the local official NOAA forecast. One problem locally is that the closest silflow monitor is shielded by a hill depending on the wind direction so a slight change in wind direction will cause a huge change in wind speed reading. That may be different in your location thought. Personally, I like the SFO data as they have a platform out in the middle of the bay that is not influenced by the hills. If that is the case up there, you might get some use out of my iGoogle gadget http://www.google. com/ig/directory ?url=L-36. com/wind. xml and enter OLM as the airport code. You can also set up a preset for the area on the weather site and see the wind readings for OLM for the last 24 hours http://l-36. com/weather4. php This site also gives tidal and current information which might be of use as currents up there can be very significant. Allen Disclaimer. I make abut 10 cents a day off of these sites so this is a bold face plug. Some day I will get to the $100 threshold and actually get a check mailed. Hasn't happened yet. If truth be told, I only have adds so that Google will have to search and index the damn site. I don't do this for the money. AE On Sun, Oct 25, 2009 at 2:42 PM, Terrence Spencer <tspencer@harbornet. com> wrote: If you would like to watch wind patterns, you might try sailflow.com. They have current readings as well as predictions for the puget sound region. I find it fun to compare their predictions to reality. They seem to be pretty good at calling the overall regional direction but velocity in Puget Sound, particularly in light conditions, is dependent on local geography and patterns. Terry Capriccio Cal 2-29 Tacoma From: "Scott Cyphers" <scottcyphers@ sbcglobal. net> Reply-To: Cal_Boats@yahoogrou ps.com Date: Sat, 24 Oct 2009 21:10:38 -0700 To: <Cal_Boats@yahoogrou ps.com> Subject: RE: [Cal_Boats] Olympia, Wa Thanks for the replies so far. Sounds like good news for my move. I was also wondering about wind patterns. In Oregon where I am now the winds, at least in the summer months, are predictable around 2pm from the Southish till about sunset. Not sure about winter. I think it is kind of all over the place. I have been watching wunderground. com for weather in Olympia. Where ever the weather station is there doesn’t seem to very much wind ever. Is that generally the case? Thanks, Scott C. From: Cal_Boats@yahoogrou ps.com [mailto:Cal_Boats@ yahoogroups. com] On Behalf Of Terrence Spencer Sent: Saturday, October 24, 2009 6:23 PM To: Cal_Boats@yahoogrou ps.com Subject: Re: [Cal_Boats] Olympia, Wa I sail out of Tacoma on my 76 Cal 29. We cruised the South Sound this year and spent two days in Olympia. The city is within several hours of a multitude of delightful coves, bights, and bays for anchoring out or tying up for a night. While much of the shoreline is privately owned, there are several state parks and marinas to visit nearby. You can cruise from Olympia to Alaska staying mostly within coastal waters except for a couple of short stretches north of Vancouver I. I really like the city of Olympia itself. The downtown area has a very nice feel, as if you had been dropped back into the 1950’s; good restaurants, an excellent brewpub (Fish Tale Ales) and a farmers market. The weather is what it is in the northwest. It does rain a lot here, but our total rainfall is not that great. We just have a lot of grey, drizzly days November through February. We race in the winter here, and it is rare to end up with the type of rainstorm that makes you feel really uncomfortable. On the other hand, our weather can take some getting used to for a transplant. Our summers are outstanding. There are others on the list who live in Olympia who can tell you much more. Terry Spencer Capriccio Cal 2-29 Tacoma From: "hatikvah29" <scottcyphers@ sbcglobal. net> Reply-To: Cal_Boats@yahoogrou ps.com Date: Sat, 24 Oct 2009 18:32:07 -0000 To: Cal_Boats@yahoogrou ps.com Subject: [Cal_Boats] Olympia, Wa I am looking to move to the Olympia, Wa area and am wondering about the sailing conditions, marinas that sort of thing. I have a 74 Cal29. I am also interested in what the weather is like, the people, the housing, you know a general feel for the area. I don't know anyone there but my sister and her family. They just moved to Roy a couple of months ago. This may not be an appropriate discussion on this forum so you can email me directly if you like. scottcyphers@ sbcglobal. net <mailto:scottcyphers %40sbcglobal. net> Thanks in advance Scott C.

Scott: there is the potential for some great sailing out of Olympia in Budd Bay, usually southernly winds 10-15. The winds are not dependable though so you'll be using your engine. As others have said there are a lot of places all within 3 hours, to drop your hook or tie to a buoy and explore the beaches and trails of some great state parks. Fiddlehead marina runs $6.50 a foot and is right downtown within view of the capitol dome, farmers market and downtown restaurants and pubs. After 3 years down there I moved to Shilshole marina in Seattle to reduce my commute to the boat so I am pretty sure they have some openings. There is also a newer, larger marina in east bay owned and run by the city. It is called Swan town marina. Similarly priced but likely a two-year waiting list and a little bit further walk to downtown. Number for Fiddlehead is (360) 352-0528. Contact me off list if you want some more details and photos........ Bob Connell "Jollygood!", Cal 31, #59 Olympia, WA --- On Sat, 10/24/09, hatikvah29 <sc… [at] sbcglobal.net> wrote: From: hatikvah29 <sc… [at] sbcglobal.net> Subject: [Cal_Boats] Olympia, Wa To: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com Date: Saturday, October 24, 2009, 11:32 AM I am looking to move to the Olympia, Wa area and am wondering about the sailing conditions, marinas that sort of thing. I have a 74 Cal29. I am also interested in what the weather is like, the people, the housing, you know a gerneal feel for the area. I don't know anyone there but my sister and her family. They just moved to Roy a couple of months ago. This may not be an appropriate discussion on this forum so you can email me directly if you like. scottcyphers@ sbcglobal. net Thanks in advance Scott C.

Thanks so much for all the input. You can get all the predictions there are but first hand local knowledge is the best. I really appreciate the info. Scott Cyphers _____ From: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com [mailto:Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Bob Connell Sent: Sunday, October 25, 2009 5:20 PM To: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [Cal_Boats] Olympia, Wa Scott: there is the potential for some great sailing out of Olympia in Budd Bay, usually southerly winds 10-15. The winds are not dependable though so you'll be using your engine. As others have said there are a lot of places all within 3 hours, to drop your hook or tie to a buoy and explore the beaches and trails of some great state parks. Fiddlehead marina runs $6.50 a foot and is right downtown within view of the capitol dome, farmers market and downtown restaurants and pubs. After 3 years down there I moved to Shilshole marina in Seattle to reduce my commute to the boat so I am pretty sure they have some openings. There is also a newer, larger marina in east bay owned and run by the city. It is called Swan town marina. Similarly priced but likely a two-year waiting list and a little bit further walk to downtown. Number for Fiddlehead is (360) 352-0528. Contact me off list if you want some more details and photos........ Bob Connell "Jollygood!", Cal 31, #59 Olympia, WA --- On Sat, 10/24/09, hatikvah29 <sc… [at] sbcglobal.net> wrote: From: hatikvah29 <sc… [at] sbcglobal.net> Subject: [Cal_Boats] Olympia, Wa To: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com Date: Saturday, October 24, 2009, 11:32 AM I am looking to move to the Olympia, Wa area and am wondering about the sailing conditions, marinas that sort of thing. I have a 74 Cal29. I am also interested in what the weather is like, the people, the housing, you know a general feel for the area. I don't know anyone there but my sister and her family. They just moved to Roy a couple of months ago. This may not be an appropriate discussion on this forum so you can email me directly if you like. scottcyphers@ <http://us.mc456.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=scottcyphers%40sbcglobal.net> sbcglobal. net Thanks in advance Scott C.

If I had to bet money, I would put it on black on a roulette table Much better odds of being right. I often tell people that around there there are two sources of weather predictions. One is totally wrong, and the other is useless. I went out the other day and the sailflow had 5 knots. The NOAA was 5-10, I was in 20-30. Around here, you just need to be ready for anything. On the other hand, I remember being out in no wind, basically twisting enjoying champaign and caviar (only time we had that in 20 years). The next day I talked to someone who was dismasted from all the wind in another part of the bay. Allen On Sun, Oct 25, 2009 at 4:41 PM, Gerald Sobel <so… [at] yahoo.com> wrote: > > > Allen. > I agree that Sailflow, while being impressive in its presentations, is > completely hallucinatory as to its wind prognostications, it almost cost me > finishing the MdR to Catalina race when it predicted 20-25 knot breezes > which were more like 11-16 knots the whole way, and I got caught very > underpowered with a #3 foresail up. > > However, the NOAA predictions which are generally, more often on the high > side, are much closer to the money. If I had to bet money (or chose a > headsail) I'd go with the NOAA predictions > Jerry > > --- On *Sun, 10/25/09, Allen Edwards <al… [at] PaloAltoPhoto.com>*wrote: > > > From: Allen Edwards <al… [at] PaloAltoPhoto.com> > Subject: Re: [Cal_Boats] Olympia, Wa > To: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com > Date: Sunday, October 25, 2009, 3:20 PM > > > > I use sailflow in SF Bay and find them almost always wrong, which is > significantly better than the local official NOAA forecast. One problem > locally is that the closest silflow monitor is shielded by a hill depending > on the wind direction so a slight change in wind direction will cause a huge > change in wind speed reading. That may be different in your location > thought. Personally, I like the SFO data as they have a platform out in the > middle of the bay that is not influenced by the hills. > > If that is the case up there, you might get some use out of my iGoogle > gadget http://www.google. com/ig/directory ?url=L-36. com/wind. xml<http://www.google.com/ig/directory?url=L-36.com/wind.xml> > > <http://www.google.com/ig/directory?url=L-36.com/wind.xml>and enter OLM as > the airport code. > > You can also set up a preset for the area on the weather site and see the > wind readings for OLM for the last 24 hours > http://l-36. com/weather4. php <http://l-36.com/weather4.php> This site > also gives tidal and current information which might be of use as currents > up there can be very significant. > > > Allen > > > Disclaimer. I make abut 10 cents a day off of these sites so this is a > bold face plug. Some day I will get to the $100 threshold and actually get > a check mailed. Hasn't happened yet. If truth be told, I only have adds so > that Google will have to search and index the damn site. I don't do this > for the money. > AE > > > > On Sun, Oct 25, 2009 at 2:42 PM, Terrence Spencer <tspencer@harbornet. com<http://mc/compose?to=ts… [at] harbornet.com> > > wrote: > >> >> >> If you would like to watch wind patterns, you might try sailflow.com. >> They have current readings as well as predictions for the puget sound >> region. I find it fun to compare their predictions to reality. They seem >> to be pretty good at calling the overall regional direction but velocity in >> Puget Sound, particularly in light conditions, is dependent on local >> geography and patterns. >> >> Terry >> >> Capriccio >> Cal 2-29 >> Tacoma >> >> ------------------------------ >> *From: *"Scott Cyphers" <scottcyphers@ sbcglobal. net<http://mc/compose?to=sc… [at] sbcglobal.net> >> > >> >> *Reply-To: *Cal_Boats@yahoogrou ps.com<http://mc/compose?to=Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com> >> *Date: *Sat, 24 Oct 2009 21:10:38 -0700 >> >> *To: *<Cal_Boats@yahoogrou ps.com<http://mc/compose?to=Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com> >> > >> *Subject: *RE: [Cal_Boats] Olympia, Wa >> >> >> >> >> >> Thanks for the replies so far. Sounds like good news for my move. I was >> also wondering about wind patterns. In Oregon where I am now the winds, at >> least in the summer months, are predictable around 2pm from the Southish >> till about sunset. Not sure about winter. I think it is kind of all over the >> place. I have been watching wunderground. com <http://wunderground.com>for weather in Olympia. Where ever the weather station is there doesn’t seem >> to very much wind ever. Is that generally the case? >> >> >> Thanks, Scott C. >> >> ------------------------------ >> >> *From:* Cal_Boats@yahoogrou ps.com<http://mc/compose?to=Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com>[mailto:Cal_Boats@ >> yahoogroups. com] <http://mc/compose?to=Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com]> *On >> Behalf Of *Terrence Spencer >> *Sent:* Saturday, October 24, 2009 6:23 PM >> *To:* Cal_Boats@yahoogrou ps.com<http://mc/compose?to=Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com> >> *Subject:* Re: [Cal_Boats] Olympia, Wa >> >> >> >> I sail out of Tacoma on my 76 Cal 29. We cruised the South Sound this >> year and spent two days in Olympia. The city is within several hours of a >> multitude of delightful coves, bights, and bays for anchoring out or tying >> up for a night. While much of the shoreline is privately owned, there are >> several state parks and marinas to visit nearby. You can cruise from >> Olympia to Alaska staying mostly within coastal waters except for a couple >> of short stretches north of Vancouver I. >> >> I really like the city of Olympia itself. The downtown area has a very >> nice feel, as if you had been dropped back into the 1950’s; good >> restaurants, an excellent brewpub (Fish Tale Ales) and a farmers market. >> >> The weather is what it is in the northwest. It does rain a lot here, but >> our total rainfall is not that great. We just have a lot of grey, drizzly >> days November through February. We race in the winter here, and it is rare >> to end up with the type of rainstorm that makes you feel really >> uncomfortable. On the other hand, our weather can take some getting used to >> for a transplant. Our summers are outstanding. >> >> There are others on the list who live in Olympia who can tell you much >> more. >> >> Terry Spencer >> Capriccio >> Cal 2-29 >> Tacoma >> >> ------------------------------ >> >> *From: *"hatikvah29" <scottcyphers@ sbcglobal. net<http://mc/compose?to=sc… [at] sbcglobal.net> >> > >> *Reply-To: *Cal_Boats@yahoogrou ps.com<http://mc/compose?to=Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com> >> *Date: *Sat, 24 Oct 2009 18:32:07 -0000 >> *To: *Cal_Boats@yahoogrou ps.com<http://mc/compose?to=Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com> >> *Subject: *[Cal_Boats] Olympia, Wa >> >> >> >> >> >> I am looking to move to the Olympia, Wa area and am wondering about the >> sailing conditions, marinas that sort of thing. I have a 74 Cal29. I am also >> interested in what the weather is like, the people, the housing, you know a >> general feel for the area. I don't know anyone there but my sister and her >> family. They just moved to Roy a couple of months ago. This may not be an >> appropriate discussion on this forum so you can email me directly if you >> like. scottcyphers@ sbcglobal. net<http://mc/compose?to=sc… [at] sbcglobal.net> <mailto:scottcyphers >> %40sbcglobal. net> <http://mc/compose?to=scottcyphers%40sbcglobal.net> >> >> Thanks in advance >> Scott C. >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> > >

Scott C: Terry has painted a very accurate picture of the area. But please don't tell everyone. We kinda like things the way they are. I can add a little personal experience for you. We currently moor a Cal 34 in Tacoma and sail in the South Sound much of the time. The winds are indeed lighter there but the entire area is little used so it seems wonderfully remote sometimes. There are several bays in which to anchor and a few marinas if you have reciprical privilages. Before we bought our previous boat, we chartered small daysailers at Island Sailing School in Oly for a couple years. Most of the marinas are at the bottom of Budd Inlet and are near many shops, chandleries and repair facilities. The tidal swings there are in the neighborhood of 17-20 feet and it can limit your comings and goings occasionally. It is mostly a mud bottom so it is no big deal. Budd Inlet funnels the low-pressure systems right into town and the annual rainfall is in excess of 60 inches a year. Seattle/Tacoma are more in the realm of 40" and a wee bit warmer. As mentioned, Olympia is a college town and is a delightful blend of cafe's, brew pubs, academia, old hippies and their hippie kids along with a withering fishing industry. Budd inlet is renowned for clams ad oysters. The Oyster House sits on the wharf right at the end of the bay and almost center of downtown too. It has a l large deck for decent weather (more often than you'd think) and ample windows inside facing the bay. It offers WONDERFUL food and beer. The Saturday market dwon the warf can suck up a Saturday before you know it. Great local organic produce, lamb and baked goods. If you've a hankerin' for the old days, macramé' candleholders can still be found next to incense and those weird bongs thingies. There is an active and large sailing community with at least two good yacht clubs there. In a word, Olympia is very close to the end of the sailing rainbow. Good luck! Danny 1978 Cal 34 Mklll, Sound Discovery > I am looking to move to the Olympia , Wa area and am wondering about the sailing conditions, marinas that sort of thing. I have a 74 Cal29. I am also interested in what the weather is like, the people, the housing, you know a general feel for the area. I don't know anyone there but my sister and her family. They just moved to Roy a couple of months ago. This may not be an appropriate discussion on this forum so you can email me directly if you like. scottcyphers@ sbcglobal. net <mailto:scottcyphers %40sbcglobal. net> > > Thanks in advance > Scott C. Â <SNIP>

All weather is local. We need to should be able read the clouds and make our own forcasts. <SNIP> Danny Cal 34 Mk lll, Sound Discovery

Danny wrote: > > > Scott C: > > Terry has painted a very accurate picture of the area. But please > don't tell everyone. We kinda like things the way they are. > This made me smile. We have the same attitude here in Traverse City, MI. "It's OK to visit and spend money here, but please go home afterward." I get to live in the place where all the other poor suckers go on vacation. Life is good, but we don't want to make too big a point of it. Chris Campbell whose boat and office are each a mile from his house. > >

I officiate at a lot of tennis tournaments, and, because of my 30 year sailing background, I have become the "go to guy" for what the weather is going to do and how long to suspend play should it rain. The sailing experience (especially racing) makes you pretty good at looking at wind and cloud patterns and predicting the weather "right here" as opposed to a county wide prediction that is on TV or radio. Donald Dutton, 1986 Cal 33-2, "Quantum Evolution" "Twenty Years from now, you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the things you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover." ........Mark Twain From: Danny <db… [at] easystreet.net> To: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com Sent: Monday, October 26, 2009 9:39:44 AM Subject: [Cal_Boats] Sailflow, was:Re:Olympia, Wa(Allen) All weather is local. We need to should be able read the clouds and make our own forcasts. <SNIP> Danny Cal 34 Mk lll, Sound Discovery

Donald Dutton wrote: > > I officiate at a lot of tennis tournaments, and, because of my 30 year > sailing background, I have become the "go to guy" for what the weather > is going to do and how long to suspend play should it rain. The > sailing experience (especially racing) makes you pretty good at > looking at wind and cloud patterns and predicting the weather "right > here" as opposed to a county wide prediction that is on TV or radio. Most of our weather comes from the west, and when I look west from my house it's uphill so I don't see much. When the NOAA forecast is something along the lines of possible thunderstorms, the question is whether to ignore it and go sailing, or stay at home and cut the grass. One solution is to consult the web sites with local weather radar images. When I see bad things coming across Lake Michigan, the neighbors are happy because the grass gets cut. If there's no sign of bad stuff headed at me, I've learned to disregard NOAA and go sailing. The grass got really shaggy this summer. Chris Campbell >

³Terry has painted a very accurate picture of the area. But please don't tell everyone. We kinda like things the way they are.² I would not tell anyone but other cal sailors how good we have it here. All others hear about how many people fall off their bicycles and drown. I tell them about our 2 seasons (winter and August) and our 2 kinds of weather (raining and when it is going to rain). If any non-sailor asks you, please share this latter view. Thanks, Terry Capriccio Cal 2-29 Tacoma

I completely understand and don't blame you all for wanting to protect a good thing. I will never tell what I have heard. Mum is the word. The two seasons winter and August, got it. Scott Cyphers _____ From: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com [mailto:Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Terrence Spencer Sent: Monday, October 26, 2009 4:40 PM To: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [Cal_Boats] Re: Olympia, Wa "Terry has painted a very accurate picture of the area. But please don't tell everyone. We kinda like things the way they are." I would not tell anyone but other cal sailors how good we have it here. All others hear about how many people fall off their bicycles and drown. I tell them about our 2 seasons (winter and August) and our 2 kinds of weather (raining and when it is going to rain). If any non-sailor asks you, please share this latter view. Thanks, Terry Capriccio Cal 2-29 Tacoma

and don't forget: Montana also has two seasons, winter and road construction Reggie To: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com From: sc… [at] sbcglobal.net Date: Mon, 26 Oct 2009 17:52:39 -0700 Subject: RE: [Cal_Boats] Re: Olympia, Wa I completely understand and don’t blame you all for wanting to protect a good thing. I will never tell what I have heard. Mum is the word. The two seasons winter and August, got it. Scott Cyphers From: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com [mailto:Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Terrence Spencer Sent: Monday, October 26, 2009 4:40 PM To: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [Cal_Boats] Re: Olympia, Wa “Terry has painted a very accurate picture of the area. But please don't tell everyone. We kinda like things the way they are.” I would not tell anyone but other cal sailors how good we have it here. All others hear about how many people fall off their bicycles and drown. I tell them about our 2 seasons (winter and August) and our 2 kinds of weather (raining and when it is going to rain). If any non-sailor asks you, please share this latter view. Thanks, Terry Capriccio Cal 2-29 Tacoma

I am surprised no one has told him about the ice storms and the sound freezing over ???? From: Terrence Spencer <ts… [at] harbornet.com> To: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com Sent: Mon, October 26, 2009 4:40:26 PM Subject: Re: [Cal_Boats] Re: Olympia, Wa “Terry has painted a very accurate picture of the area. But please don't tell everyone. We kinda like things the way they are.” I would not tell anyone but other cal sailors how good we have it here. All others hear about how many people fall off their bicycles and drown. I tell them about our 2 seasons (winter and August) and our 2 kinds of weather (raining and when it is going to rain). If any non-sailor asks you, please share this latter view. Thanks, Terry Capriccio Cal 2-29 Tacoma

If I tell you, I will have to kil-- you, WTF, mike From: Scott Cyphers <sc… [at] sbcglobal.net> To: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com Sent: Mon, October 26, 2009 5:52:39 PM Subject: RE: [Cal_Boats] Re: Olympia, Wa I completely understand and don’t blame you all for wanting to protect a good thing. I will never tell what I have heard. Mum is the word. The two seasons winter and August, got it. Scott Cyphers From:Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com [mailto:Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Terrence Spencer Sent: Monday, October 26, 2009 4:40 PM To: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [Cal_Boats] Re: Olympia , Wa “Terry has painted a very accurate picture of the area. But please don't tell everyone. We kinda like things the way they are.” I would not tell anyone but other cal sailors how good we have it here. All others hear about how many people fall off their bicycles and drown. I tell them about our 2 seasons (winter and August) and our 2 kinds of weather (raining and when it is going to rain). If any non-sailor asks you, please share this latter view. Thanks, Terry Capriccio Cal 2-29 Tacoma

Yeah, too many scotches... On Mon, Oct 26, 2009 at 8:28 PM, mike farrell <ve… [at] yahoo.com> wrote: > > > If I tell you, I will have to kil-- you, > WTF, mike > > ------------------------------ > *From:* Scott Cyphers <sc… [at] sbcglobal.net> > *To:* Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com > *Sent:* Mon, October 26, 2009 5:52:39 PM > *Subject:* RE: [Cal_Boats] Re: Olympia, Wa > > > > I completely understand and don’t blame you all for wanting to protect a > good thing. I will never tell what I have heard. Mum is the word. The two > seasons winter and August, got it. > > > > Scott Cyphers > ------------------------------ > > *From:* Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com [mailto:Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com] *On > Behalf Of *Terrence Spencer > *Sent:* Monday, October 26, 2009 4:40 PM > *To:* Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com > *Subject:* Re: [Cal_Boats] Re: Olympia , Wa > > > > > > > > > > > “Terry has painted a very accurate picture of the area. But please don't > tell everyone. We kinda like things the way they are.” > > I would not tell anyone but other cal sailors how good we have it here. > All others hear about how many people fall off their bicycles and drown. I > tell them about our 2 seasons (winter and August) and our 2 kinds of weather > (raining and when it is going to rain). If any non-sailor asks you, please > share this latter view. > > Thanks, > Terry > Capriccio > Cal 2-29 > Tacoma > > > >

Not sure I understand the response. Maybe it isn't even to my response about joking about not telling about the south sound area. ????? That is the problem with emails the small nuances get lost in nonverbal communication. Scott _____ From: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com [mailto:Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of mike farrell Sent: Monday, October 26, 2009 8:29 PM To: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [Cal_Boats] Re: Olympia, Wa If I tell you, I will have to kil-- you, WTF, mike _____ From: Scott Cyphers <sc… [at] sbcglobal.net> To: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com Sent: Mon, October 26, 2009 5:52:39 PM Subject: RE: [Cal_Boats] Re: Olympia, Wa I completely understand and don't blame you all for wanting to protect a good thing. I will never tell what I have heard. Mum is the word. The two seasons winter and August, got it. Scott Cyphers _____ From: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com [mailto:Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Terrence Spencer Sent: Monday, October 26, 2009 4:40 PM To: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [Cal_Boats] Re: Olympia , Wa "Terry has painted a very accurate picture of the area. But please don't tell everyone. We kinda like things the way they are." I would not tell anyone but other cal sailors how good we have it here. All others hear about how many people fall off their bicycles and drown. I tell them about our 2 seasons (winter and August) and our 2 kinds of weather (raining and when it is going to rain). If any non-sailor asks you, please share this latter view. Thanks, Terry Capriccio Cal 2-29 Tacoma

Well, down here in the Red Neck Riveria we also have two seasons, TH and TC. Fortunately TC only lasts through Dec. - Feb. Then a few days of "Perfect" then is is TH again until Mid-October, a few days of "Perfect" then TC again. Why did we leave Seal Beach??? Tom Vandiver, Cal 46 & 25, Bayou Chico, FL From: r good <my… [at] hotmail.com> To: ca… [at] yahoogroups.com Sent: Mon, October 26, 2009 8:32:16 PM Subject: [Cal_Boats] RE:2 seasons and don't forget: Montana also has two seasons, winter and road construction Reggie To: Cal_Boats@yahoogrou ps.com From: scottcyphers@ sbcglobal. net Date: Mon, 26 Oct 2009 17:52:39 -0700 Subject: RE: [Cal_Boats] Re: Olympia, Wa I completely understand and don’t blame you all for wanting to protect a good thing. I will never tell what I have heard. Mum is the word. The two seasons winter and August, got it. Scott Cyphers From:Cal_Boats@yahoogrou ps.com [mailto:Cal_ Boats@yahoogroup s.com] On Behalf Of Terrence Spencer Sent: Monday, October 26, 2009 4:40 PM To: Cal_Boats@yahoogrou ps.com Subject: Re: [Cal_Boats] Re: Olympia, Wa “Terry has painted a very accurate picture of the area. But please don't tell everyone. We kinda like things the way they are.” I would not tell anyone but other cal sailors how good we have it here. All others hear about how many people fall off their bicycles and drown. I tell them about our 2 seasons (winter and August) and our 2 kinds of weather (raining and when it is going to rain). If any non-sailor asks you, please share this latter view. Thanks, Terry Capriccio Cal 2-29 Tacoma

Tom Vandiver wrote: > > Well, down here in the Red Neck Riveria we also have two seasons, TH > and TC. Fortunately TC only lasts through Dec. - Feb. Then a few days > of "Perfect" then is is TH again until Mid-October, a few days of > "Perfect" then TC again. Fall in Michigan this year is just like this past summer: WTF. The summer was cold and the fall has been cold and wet. Intellectually, I know that there is a wide normal variation in conditions but when you're in one of the years falling at the outer end of the curve, you keep waiting for it to be like it usually is. Chris Campbell

One of the huge problems with "normal" weather is the lack of sufficient data to even know what "normal" is in the first place. Usable weather records have only been kept for about 150 years and the reliability of the older records is quite questionable. Only records kept from about the 1950's are truly accurate and usable. This gives us a statistical data base of about 60 years to predict weather patterns that have developed over the past 30,000 years. Not very useful from a scientific point of view. But, we have all been sold on the idea by the competitive juices of the meteorologists on for profit television stations that their data is useful. Hogwash. No one knows what kinds of hurricanes hit the Florida panhandle in 1300, 1400, 1500 and on and on. You don't know what the summer in Michigan was like in 1193 when, perhaps it was even colder than this one! Some efforts are made to track data from tree rings -- ever been 20 degrees warmer and have 2" more rain than your airport data reports for the same date? I have. My tree might show rings that the airport tree doesn't even know exists! Therefore, your expectations of what a "normal" summer weather pattern in Michigan might be are extremely limited in scope -- you might just have had a very normal summer based on 1000 or 2000 years of data and you just don't know it! I lived in Florida, (Tom, I wish I had joined this list and gotten to know you then -- we sailed right through Pensacola), when our "100 year floodplain" changed 4 times in one year! New data from storms that year were all outside of the "100 year" average that had been predicted up until that point. You need 8 or 9 sets of 100 year data to predict one and, as I have stated above, we had less than half of one to try to predict "100 year" storm activity. The model is very weak at best. Didn't stop my insurance company from doubling my rates, though. Here in the desert that is California I have come to terms with the concept that there is no "normal" weather. Based on whether there is a high pressure cell dominating the weather -- much of the time -- than we are always 10 - 15 degrees above "normal." As soon as a low pressure system rolls through we pass right on through normal and go 10 degrees or more below "normal." To call the average the normal temperature is absurd, and yet the TV weather people never fail to do so. Normal here should be expressed as a range of temperatures, not the average. We hardly ever have weather that hits the average temperature! So, how do I decide when to sail and when to stay in port. I check the regional radar to look for the location of major fronts and then I go to the dock and look at the sky! Cloud activity, true wind at the dock, and expectations from the frontal systems make the decision fairly sound. But, I am always ready for that freak front that didn't show on radar and gives you conditions like the time I returned up Galveston Bay in a 50 knot norther that was predicted at 10 knots by NOAA and all of the local TV stations. Such is life on the water-- and I love it! Donald Dutton, 1986 Cal 33-2, "Quantum Evolution" "Twenty Years from now, you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the things you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover." ........Mark Twain From: Chris Campbell <cl… [at] charterinternet.com> To: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com Sent: Wednesday, October 28, 2009 6:29:36 AM Subject: Re: [Cal_Boats] RE:2 seasons Tom Vandiver wrote: >Well, down here in the Red Neck Riveria we also have two seasons, TH and TC. Fortunately TC only lasts through Dec. - Feb. Then a few days of "Perfect" then is is TH again until Mid-October, a few days of "Perfect" then TC again. Fall in Michigan this year is just like this past summer: WTF. The summer was cold and the fall has been cold and wet. Intellectually, I know that there is a wide normal variation in conditions but when you're in one of the years falling at the outer end of the curve, you keep waiting for it to be like it usually is. Chris Campbell

Donald Dutton wrote: > > One of the huge problems with "normal" weather is the lack of > sufficient data to even know what "normal" is in the first place. > Usable weather records have only been kept for about 150 years and the > reliability of the older records is quite questionable. Only records > kept from about the 1950's are truly accurate and usable. This gives > us a statistical data base of about 60 years to predict weather > patterns that have developed over the past 30,000 years. Not very > useful from a scientific point of view. But, we have all been sold on > the idea by the competitive juices of the meteorologists on for profit > television stations that their data is useful. Hogwash. > > No one knows what kinds of hurricanes hit the Florida panhandle in > 1300, 1400, 1500 and on and on. You don't know what the summer in > Michigan was like in 1193 when, perhaps it was even colder than this > one! Some efforts are made to track data from tree rings -- ever been > 20 degrees warmer and have 2" more rain than your airport data reports > for the same date? I have. My tree might show rings that the airport > tree doesn't even know exists! OK, Don and I disagree on many points here, /but when you get to his last paragraph, we agree completely:/ > So, how do I decide when to sail and when to stay in port. I check > the regional radar to look for the location of major fronts and then I > go to the dock and look at the sky! Cloud activity, true wind at the > dock, and expectations from the frontal systems make the decision > fairly sound. That's what I do, too. But I disagree with his argument that our ignorance of the past is complete and irreversible. The climate paleontologists have a variety of ways of extracting data from the past, and while it is not perfect, it is useful. Tree rings, for example, don't respond to a single day's weather anomaly, but they tend to average a season's experience. Over a season, a region's weather tends to be related. It may rain on my house today but not on my office, but the rainfall records for my county are likely to be a good representation for whether this has been a wet or a dry fall in both locations. There are data derived from core samples from lake beds, showing things like pollen deposition that can give us clues to climate conditions in past times. They can tell us what kinds of vegetation were growing and how much of it grew. Some strata may show ash deposition from large volcanic eruptions. My nephew worked on ice cores from glaciers as a student one year. In my town, we have reliable records of when and if our Bay froze going back 150 winters. 150 years' data is a tiny blip in the earth's history, to be sure, but it aids in understanding. And because the Bay is a large geological feature, its behavior is a good indicator of regional weather. Our newspaper observed that October has been our coldest since 1952. That's a large regional conclusion, but it corresponds exactly to my experience--too much overcast and rain, not enough of those nice warm fall days. Many of us, by the time we are old farts, have a pretty good notion of what to expect in various seasons and when weather patterns are departing notably from what we expect. There has been some publicity lately about attempts to refute the scientific conclusions that there's a trend toward global warming. The AP decided to do an analysis of which conclusions were more accurate: the data show warming, or the data support cooling. They gave numerical data to statisticians, not telling them these were weather data, but just asking them to study what kind of numerical trend emerged from the data: are the number trending toward higher or lower numbers? They concluded that the trend is upward unless you use one anomalous year (1998) as your starting point. Here's the AP news story: http://www.ajc.com/news/nation-world/ap-impact-statisticians-reject-174088.html. In 300 years, people will probably look back in amusement at our clumsy attempts to extract meaning from the data we have, just as we look back and laugh at the nutty beliefs about the earth and cosmos that prevailed 300 years ago from today. But that's how we learn more, by using our knowledge to extract information from data. I admire those who do it. Chris Campbell