Re: [Cal_Boats] Irene surge for Chesapeake?

Alfred - I finally heard something this morning which was 4-8 feet. I hope the jackass in the stinkpot next to me does something with his boat. No changes to his lines as of 7pm last night. Having met him once he appears to be the "that's what insurance is for" type. Paul Alfred Poor <ap… [at] verizon.net> wrote: >Charlie (and any other Bay denizens), have you heard any forecasts about >storm surge on the Bay. The one map I found on Weather Underground shows a >modest 3 to 6 feet forecast for the head of the Bay (which is naturally my >area of interest). I'd expect that as Irene leaves, she'll blow a lot of >water out of the Bay so I'd expect some extreme lows by the end of Sunday. >Heard anything on the subject? > > > >Headed down Sat morning to double up lines and strip off the canvas. > > > >Alfred Poor > >1973 Tartan 34C #288 "Jambalaya" > > >

Paul, 4-5 feet appears "handleable". Above that, it sure does get dicey. I recall that for Isabel, the surge was a much bigger factor than the wind, but who knows. I'll be doing my lines work today, and helping some friends. Fortunately (I think), the CAL 40 is out of the water at KentMorr. The possibly unfortunate part is that KentMorr is on the Eastern shore. Hopefully, you will be reasonably protected from the waves in Cambridge. Take Care Charlie From: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com [mailto:Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Paul Sent: Friday, August 26, 2011 8:09 AM To: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [Cal_Boats] Irene surge for Chesapeake? Alfred - I finally heard something this morning which was 4-8 feet. I hope the jackass in the stinkpot next to me does something with his boat. No changes to his lines as of 7pm last night. Having met him once he appears to be the "that's what insurance is for" type. Paul Alfred Poor <ap… [at] verizon.net> wrote: >Charlie (and any other Bay denizens), have you heard any forecasts >about storm surge on the Bay. The one map I found on Weather >Underground shows a modest 3 to 6 feet forecast for the head of the Bay >(which is naturally my area of interest). I'd expect that as Irene >leaves, she'll blow a lot of water out of the Bay so I'd expect some extreme lows by the end of Sunday. >Heard anything on the subject? > > > >Headed down Sat morning to double up lines and strip off the canvas. > > > >Alfred Poor > >1973 Tartan 34C #288 "Jambalaya" > > > ------------------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Links

Weather.L-36.com for Cambridge <http://bit.ly/oM8eej> On Fri, Aug 26, 2011 at 5:20 AM, Husar, Charlie [USA] (ASE) < hu… [at] bah.com> wrote: > ** > > > Paul, 4-5 feet appears "handleable". Above that, it sure does get dicey. I > recall that for Isabel, the surge was a much bigger factor than the wind, > but who knows. I'll be doing my lines work today, and helping some friends. > Fortunately (I think), the CAL 40 is out of the water at KentMorr. The > possibly unfortunate part is that KentMorr is on the Eastern shore. > Hopefully, you will be reasonably protected from the waves in Cambridge. > > Take Care > Charlie > > -----Original Message----- > From: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com [mailto:Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com] On > Behalf Of Paul > Sent: Friday, August 26, 2011 8:09 AM > To: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com > Subject: Re: [Cal_Boats] Irene surge for Chesapeake? > > Alfred - I finally heard something this morning which was 4-8 feet. I hope > the jackass in the stinkpot next to me does something with his boat. No > changes to his lines as of 7pm last night. Having met him once he appears to > be the "that's what insurance is for" type. > Paul > > Alfred Poor <ap… [at] verizon.net> wrote: > > >Charlie (and any other Bay denizens), have you heard any forecasts > >about storm surge on the Bay. The one map I found on Weather > >Underground shows a modest 3 to 6 feet forecast for the head of the Bay > >(which is naturally my area of interest). I'd expect that as Irene > >leaves, she'll blow a lot of water out of the Bay so I'd expect some > extreme lows by the end of Sunday. > >Heard anything on the subject? > > > > > > > >Headed down Sat morning to double up lines and strip off the canvas. > > > > > > > >Alfred Poor > > > >1973 Tartan 34C #288 "Jambalaya" > > > > > > > > > ------------------------------------ > > Yahoo! Groups Links > > > > >

Right Coast Cal-men and Cal-Women, Any logical sense to the idea of taking the boats as far up the Potomac River, or any other associated river nearby, as far as possible, like, as, to close to the source as you can get, and finding a nice what they call, gunk-hole? I know the Washington monument has a few cracks in its stones, but I think it would make a fine pillar for a hawser to moor your boats. National Geographic issued an alert, something about the tides not being favorable. Is it because, like during full moons, new moons encourage that? On the other hand, if the Hurricane strikes during a low-low tide, it would be extra low and counteract the storm surge. We'll cross our fingers and make other nautical signs out here on the Left Coast, for yea, but don't depend on that. Bataan down the hatches, as we say in the Philippines, and Good Nite Irene. Jerry From: "Husar, Charlie [USA] (ASE)" <hu… [at] bah.com> To: "Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com" <Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com> Sent: Friday, August 26, 2011 5:20 AM Subject: RE: [Cal_Boats] Irene surge for Chesapeake? Paul, 4-5 feet appears "handleable". Above that, it sure does get dicey. I recall that for Isabel, the surge was a much bigger factor than the wind, but who knows. I'll be doing my lines work today, and helping some friends. Fortunately (I think), the CAL 40 is out of the water at KentMorr. The possibly unfortunate part is that KentMorr is on the Eastern shore. Hopefully, you will be reasonably protected from the waves in Cambridge. Take Care Charlie From: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com [mailto:Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Paul Sent: Friday, August 26, 2011 8:09 AM To: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [Cal_Boats] Irene surge for Chesapeake? Alfred - I finally heard something this morning which was 4-8 feet. I hope the jackass in the stinkpot next to me does something with his boat. No changes to his lines as of 7pm last night. Having met him once he appears to be the "that's what insurance is for" type. Paul Alfred Poor <ap… [at] verizon.net> wrote: >Charlie (and any other Bay denizens), have you heard any forecasts >about storm surge on the Bay. The one map I found on Weather >Underground shows a modest 3 to 6 feet forecast for the head of the Bay >(which is naturally my area of interest). I'd expect that as Irene >leaves, she'll blow a lot of water out of the Bay so I'd expect some extreme lows by the end of Sunday. >Heard anything on the subject? > > > >Headed down Sat morning to double up lines and strip off the canvas. > > > >Alfred Poor > >1973 Tartan 34C #288 "Jambalaya" > > > ------------------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Links

Good luck to all of you. As you know, you can find a lot of weather information on my weahter page. This setup is for Cambrindge: weather.L-36.com Cambridge weather<http://bit.ly/oG1gqb> The satellite image is frightening. * Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/ * ***hurricane/tropical storm watches issued as irene is expected to bring significant damage in several forms this weekend*** impacts... 1) high surf and dangerous rip currents have already arrived on the south coast 2) heavy rain with moderate to major flooding - especially on the west side of the storm 3) very strong damaging winds - especially on the east side of the storm 4) large and potential destructive storm surge/coastal flooding along the south coast 5) a few weak tornadoes are possible on the north and northeast side of irene. Discussion... Irene will have a very significant and damaging impact on southern new england. We are still more than 48 hours out from an potential landfalling hurricane in southern new england. This means there is continued model uncertainty on the track...Strength and exact hazards. However...Its becoming pretty apparent that no matter where it tracks this should be a very significant and potentially damaging event across southern new england. For what its worth...The consensus of the 00z model data has trended a bit back to the east. Consensus would have landfall in the vicinity of long island/connecticut or rhode island. However...The opportunity for tracks as far west as the mass/ny border...To far southeast ma remains in the cone of uncertainty. We should see the models begin to really latch onto the track over the next 1 to 2 model cycles...As we move inside 48 hours from potential landfall. With all that said...A hurricane watch has been issued for the coastal sections and tropical storm watches for most of the interior. It appears that the stage is being set for a classic predecessor rain event Saturday night...Out ahead of irene. Tropical moisture will stream northward ahead of irene and will result in increasing bands of heavy rain showers. The overall areal coverage and intensity should increase towards morning. The models appear to have sped up the track of irene on this run...Most likely making landfall as a category 1 hurricane. However...There still is a low probability that it makes landfall as a low end category 2. The 00z model suite appears to have sped irene up by at least several hours. We want to wait to see if this trend continues over the next couple of model suites...But appears the main impact from irene will be Sunday into Sunday evening with possibly improving conditions thereafter. Will discuss all the potential hazards below. Detailed hazards... 1) high surf and dangerous rip currents: swell from irene has already resulted in the development of high surf and dangerous rip currents...Especially on ocean exposed south facing beaches. These conditions will become progressively worst today and into the weekend and swimming is not recommended. 2) heavy rain with moderate to major flooding possible: a flood watch has been issued from Saturday night through Sunday night for all but the cape and islands. While the exact track remains uncertain...5 to 10 inches of rain with locally higher amounts are possible to the left of the track. This will likely bring moderate to major urban and river flooding to parts of the region. At this point...Interior southern new england is at greatest risk for more serious flooding. Nonetheless...The boston to providence corridor still has the potential for flooding especially if the track shifts east in later model runs. 3) very strong damaging wind gusts - especially on the east side: as mentioned earlier...Model consensus favors irene making landfall as a category 1 hurricane with a low probability of a low end category 2. There is still spread and uncertainty of the track as well. Based on model consensus landfall somewhere in the long island/eastern ct or rhode island area seems reasonable...But still more than 48 hours out so nothing is set in stone. Regardless...Expect very strong damaging wind especially east of the center. The potential for widespread power outages and tree damage exists with irene. Its possible that extended power outages affect a large portion of southern new england so people should be prepared. 4) large and potentially destructive storm surge/coastal flooding: coastal flooding is expected across both coasts as a result of hurricane irene. However...The area of extreme concern is along the south coast and for both the Sunday morning and evening tides. This has the potential to be a very dangerous and life threatening coastal flood event. Whether this comes to fruition will depend upon the exact track and timing. Its so tough because the change in timing by just a few hours will have huge impacts on the storm surge potential. However...People living on the south coast should be prepared for this potential. 5) a few weak and short lived tornadoes are possible: hurricane irene will have the potential to produce a few weak short-lived tornadoes mainly on the north and northeast side of the system. In fact...If this did occur there probably would not even be thunder. This mainly a result of extreme directional and speed shear.

Thanks Allen - Just heard that the 4-8' surge is for the southern part of the Bay so I still don't know what to expect where I am on the Choptank River, (mid to upper bay on the eastern shore) Paul

No info on Storm Surge but the NOAA gribs for Sunday look nasty. Cohansey is where BayBreeze is sitting and she's gonna get whacked. Luckily she's on the hard but thats a double edged sword. Hope it helps some. Best of luck to everyone. Grib viewer is zygrib, available for free on all platforms /ch

Ye must follow an old sailors tradition, A naked woman on board will calm the sea. (This is the reason for naked figureheads. ) So hurry mates, before it is too late! Best wishes to all those in harm's way. dEmO "Sometimes God calms the storm. At other times, He calms the sailor. And sometimes He makes us swim." From: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com [mailto:Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of chris123 Sent: Friday, August 26, 2011 6:12 PM To: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [Cal_Boats] Irene surge for Chesapeake? [2 Attachments] [Attachment(s) from chris123 included below] No info on Storm Surge but the NOAA gribs for Sunday look nasty. Cohansey is where BayBreeze is sitting and she's gonna get whacked. Luckily she's on the hard but thats a double edged sword. Hope it helps some. Best of luck to everyone. Grib viewer is zygrib, available for free on all platforms /ch

Not a pretty scene here - http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44271560/?gt1=43001'One of two people rescued from a sailboat uses a line to make their way onto the beach on Willoughby Spit in Norfolk, Va., on Aug. 27. The two were rescued from the boat that foundered in the waters of the Chesapeake Bay. A rescuer, left, waits for s second person to exit the boat.' From: chris123 <ch… [at] gmail.com> To: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com Sent: Friday, August 26, 2011 7:11 PM Subject: Re: [Cal_Boats] Irene surge for Chesapeake? [2 Attachments] [Attachment(s) from chris123 included below] No info on Storm Surge but the NOAA gribs for Sunday look nasty. Cohansey is where BayBreeze is sitting and she's gonna get whacked. Luckily she's on the hard but thats a double edged sword. Hope it helps some. Best of luck to everyone. Grib viewer is zygrib, available for free on all platforms /ch

Well, it is a nice picture, as pictures go, tho. Nice new-ish Hunter. The bow is pointing into the waves, that's a plus and the crew got off safe and sound, and it's on soft sand. My hunch is she'll be re-floated after the storm goes thru and hopefully with minimal damage. Maybe she'll fare better than many boats tied to docks, docks that may float off their pilings, and she's not around other boats poorly secured, and debris that would smack into her and do lots of serious damage, or end up swept inland, or land in a parking lot. It appears that Irene is losing steam, which is good, since our nation and our pocket books aren't looking so great without the added stress. Looking on the positive side. I see in another photo, on the same MSN site, the surfers are already out trying their luck after the storm went by. I went body surfing too, the day after Hurricane Cecile swept passed 50 miles off Penshahkollah in 1969, and then quit after my Navy classmate and I got flipped head over teakettle and 'boinged' on our heads into the sea bottom a couple of times, fortunately, without breaking out necks. A year later I saw the front page of Popular Science "Cecile, worst hurricane in history with winds clocked at 220 MPH." I had been riding around on my motorcycle the night it hit, tree branches flying pasted my face, wanting so much to see it. Sometimes Mother Nature suffers the naivety of fools. I woke up the next morning in my BOQ to find out that a spun-off tornado had ripped the roof off one of our pool buildings housing Dempsy Dunker. Jerry From: The SV Emergency Exit Crew <sv… [at] yahoo.com> To: "Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com" <Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com> Sent: Saturday, August 27, 2011 11:53 AM Subject: Re: [Cal_Boats] Irene surge for Chesapeake? Not a pretty scene here - http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44271560/?gt1=43001'One of two people rescued from a sailboat uses a line to make their way onto the beach on Willoughby Spit in Norfolk, Va., on Aug. 27. The two were rescued from the boat that foundered in the waters of the Chesapeake Bay. A rescuer, left, waits for s second person to exit the boat.' From: chris123 <ch… [at] gmail.com> To: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com Sent: Friday, August 26, 2011 7:11 PM Subject: Re: [Cal_Boats] Irene surge for Chesapeake? [2 Attachments] No info on Storm Surge but the NOAA gribs for Sunday look nasty. Cohansey is where BayBreeze is sitting and she's gonna get whacked. Luckily she's on the hard but thats a double edged sword. Hope it helps some. Best of luck to everyone. Grib viewer is zygrib, available for free on all platforms /ch

Well here in Salisbury we never even lost power and I don't even see a branch broken so far. Lets hope the boat had the same luck. Paul The SV Emergency Exit Crew <sv… [at] yahoo.com> wrote: >Not a pretty scene here - > >http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44271560/?gt1=43001'One of two people rescued from a sailboat uses a line to make their way onto the beach on Willoughby Spit in Norfolk, Va., on Aug. 27. The two were rescued from the boat that foundered in the waters of the Chesapeake Bay. A rescuer, left, waits for s second person to exit the boat.' > > >From: chris123 <ch… [at] gmail.com> >To: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com >Sent: Friday, August 26, 2011 7:11 PM >Subject: Re: [Cal_Boats] Irene surge for Chesapeake? [2 Attachments] > > > >[Attachment(s) from chris123 included below] >No info on Storm Surge but the NOAA gribs for Sunday look nasty. Cohansey is where BayBreeze is sitting and she's gonna get whacked. Luckily she's on the hard but thats a double edged sword. > >Hope it helps some. Best of luck to everyone. > >Grib viewer is zygrib, available for free on all platforms > >/ch > > >

It looks like my favorite web page is back on-line. http://towndock.net/news/irene-canoeing-the-streets-of-oriental?pg=1 the home page shows a boat that was lost during Irene’s visit I hope my Chesapeake friends faired well? JOhn

Thanks for all the thoughts, looks like we came through this pretty well, the boat club took a hit and is under 5 ft of water but the mooring field is intact and all the yachts weathered the storm well. Now I just have to find a way to get down to the shore to help clean up, all the roads around me are under water or trees. Grae Morrison 1972 Cal-29 #435 'Destiny' Navesink River, Red Bank, NJ

worth the extra assurance of securing your neighbor's boats, don't forget to get your ropes back. We are so relieved out here in SF area. Helen and Ed From: Grae morrison <gr… [at] gtmorrison.net> To: Ca… [at] yahoogroups.com Sent: Sun, August 28, 2011 9:19:20 AM Subject: Re: [Cal_Boats] Irene surge for Oriental NC Thanks for all the thoughts, looks like we came through this pretty well, the boat club took a hit and is under 5 ft of water but the mooring field is intact and all the yachts weathered the storm well. Now I just have to find a way to get down to the shore to help clean up, all the roads around me are under water or trees. Grae Morrison 1972 Cal-29 #435 'Destiny' Navesink River, Red Bank, NJ